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CLASS 6A · District 12-6A

Waco Midway Panthers

Enrollment: 2,647 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 1

Rank

#39

was #40

Record

6-1

3-0 district

Elo

2038

#39 of 249

OVR Grade

84.7

#39 of 249 in 6A

OFF Grade

80.5

#73 of 249 in 6A

DEF Grade

88.2

#25 of 249 in 6A

Perf

2084

#40 of 249 in 6A

Schedule & Results

Wk	Opponent (Rec) Elo	Proj WP%	Result	Perf	AOS	ADS	WQ	LQ
1	Leander Rouse (4-3) 1600	94% (+26)	W 19-0	2211	−3.5	−31.9	+0.08	—
2	@#45Aledo (3-3) 1975	28% (-9)	W 28-21	2340	+16.4	−17.2	+0.77	—
3	#29Cedar Park (7-0) 2096	58% (+3)	L 34-39	2068	+15.9	−6.9	—	−0.39
4	@Belton	96% (+30)	W 21-10	1435	−13.8	−11.2	+0.07	—
5	@Lake Belton (3-3) 1596	75% (+11)	W 58-22	2443	+25.8	−11.9	+0.35	—
6	Temple (1-6) 1448	90% (+21)	W 33-7	2124	−1.0	−26.0	+0.18	—
7	@Bryan (1-6) 760	> 98% (+51)	W 62-10	1969	+15.3	−3.5	+0.01	—
8	Killeen Chaparral (2-4) 920	> 98% (+45)	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	@Copperas Cove (5-2) 1566	88% (+19)	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	Killeen Harker Heights (4-2) 1909	63% (+5)	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 12-6A

Rk			Team (Enroll Rk)	OVR/Elo	Overall	District	PPG	PAPG	ProjRec	PO%	Bracket
1		39	Waco Midway (1) Panthers	84.7 2038	6-1	3-0	36.4	15.6	5.5-0.5	> 98%	D1
2		54	Killeen Harker Heights (5) Knights	82.8 1909	4-2	2-0	37.2	39.5	5.2-0.8	> 98%	D2
3		106	Copperas Cove (3) Bulldawgs	77.6 1566	5-2	3-0	42.0	30.0	3.8-2.2	> 98%	D1
4		100	Lake Belton (6) Broncos	78.1 1596	3-3	0-2	33.5	35.2	3.1-2.9	78.3%	D2
5		134	Temple (2) Wildcats	75.8 1448	1-6	0-3	28.4	41.3	2.2-3.8	20.9%	—
6		213	Killeen Chaparral (7) Bobcats	67.9 920	2-4	1-1	21.8	31.2	1.2-4.8	< 2%	—
7		228	Bryan (4) Vikings	65.4 760	1-6	0-3	20.0	41.3	0.1-5.9	< 2%	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
ProjRec, PO%, and Bracket represent the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations from this point forward based on each team's current Elo

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Waco Midway’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2017

14-1

Rating 772 (98th)

#2 · 2018

11-2

Rating 704 (94th)

#3 · 2014

11-1

Rating 697 (94th)

#4 · 2012

13-1

Rating 675 (91st)

#5 · 2015

9-4

Rating 672 (91st)

Team Performance History

Year	Record	Final Elo	PPG	PAPG	Margin	Elo SOS	AOS	ADS	DOM	Perf	RQ	WQ	LQ	All-Time Rating (%ile)
2025	9-2	1936	43.7	27.3	+16.5	1498	+14.8	−3.1	+17.8	1946	+0.58	+1.31	−0.72	622(83rd)
2024	7-4	1452	30.8	22.4	+8.5	1465	−2.0	−8.2	+6.2	1655	−1.39	+0.97	−2.36	540(59th)
2023	5-6	1719	31.5	29.6	+1.8	1606	+2.7	−3.6	+6.2	1656	−2.35	+1.04	−3.39	568(68th)
2022	2-8	1283	19.5	39.4	−19.9	1788	−2.9	+3.7	−6.6	1334	−3.43	+0.46	−3.89	485(38th)
2021	1-9	1406	21.7	46.5	−24.8	1912	+1.2	+10.0	−8.8	1279	−3.60	+0.04	−3.64	497(43rd)
2020	2-7	1763	22.8	43.8	−21.0	2030	+6.7	+5.9	+0.8	1519	−2.16	+0.18	−2.34	560(65th)
2019	9-4	2133	33.5	19.8	+13.6	1650	+7.1	−11.7	+18.8	1970	+0.87	+2.45	−1.58	648(87th)
2018	11-2	2386	39.9	23.4	+16.5	1762	+16.1	−10.5	+26.6	2166	+4.07	+4.29	−0.23	704(94th)
2017	14-1	2486	45.7	23.1	+22.7	1866	+24.8	−11.2	+35.9	2399	+6.73	+6.79	−0.06	772(98th)
2016	8-3	2053	34.2	30.5	+3.7	1776	+11.1	−4.6	+15.7	1892	+1.50	+2.14	−0.64	625(83rd)
2015	9-4	2164	42.5	30.5	+12.1	1799	+20.4	−3.9	+24.3	2108	+1.27	+2.28	−1.01	672(91st)
2014	11-1	2275	46.8	25.2	+21.7	1703	+22.1	−9.4	+31.5	2288	+3.77	+3.94	−0.17	697(94th)
2013	9-3	2046	43.2	25.4	+17.8	1469	+11.5	−5.5	+17.0	1924	−0.08	+1.52	−1.60	637(85th)
2012	13-1	2198	40.9	22.4	+18.5	1634	+14.9	−9.2	+24.1	2103	+4.72	+4.90	−0.18	675(91st)
2011	3-1	1854	31.0	22.2	+8.8	1514	+4.8	−4.9	+9.8	1744	−0.08	+0.56	−0.64	—
2010	4-0	1933	37.5	10.0	+27.5	1513	+9.7	−18.2	+27.9	2198	+1.04	+1.04	0.00	—
2009	1-0	1600	38.0	10.0	+28.0	1190	+6.3	−13.0	+19.3	1982	+0.07	+0.07	0.00	—
2008	1-0	1560	38.0	0.0	+38.0	1246	+6.0	−26.6	+32.7	2316	+0.10	+0.10	0.00	—
2007	1-0	1478	21.0	17.0	+4.0	1993	+6.8	−12.1	+18.9	1972	+0.78	+0.78	0.00	—
2006	0-1	1290	17.0	38.0	−21.0	2174	−0.1	+0.9	−1.0	1474	−0.63	0.00	−0.63	—
2005	1-1	1308	19.0	26.5	−7.5	1588	−3.8	+2.6	−6.3	1342	−0.47	+0.14	−0.60	—
2004	1-1	1286	18.0	18.0	0.0	1496	−5.2	−4.2	−1.1	1473	−0.60	+0.21	−0.81	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).

Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.

AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.

ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.

DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.

Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.

RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.

WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.

LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.

All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.