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CLASS 6A · District 4-6A

Keller Timber Creek Falcons

Enrollment: 2,887 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 4

Rank

#123

was #123

Record

0-0

0-0 district

Elo

1477

#123 of 249

OVR Grade

76.3

#123 of 249 in 6A

OFF Grade

—

DEF Grade

—

Perf

—

Schedule & Results

Wk	Opponent (Rec) Elo	Proj WP%	Result	Perf	WQ	LQ
1	@South Grand Prairie (0-0) 1816	20% (-14)	—	—	—	—
2	Flower Mound (0-0) 1430	55% (+2)	—	—	—	—
3	@#21Coppell (0-0) 2168	5% (-28)	—	—	—	—
4	Keller (0-0) 1583	39% (-4)	—	—	—	—
5	@Justin Northwest (0-0) 1333	65% (+6)	—	—	—	—
7	@Fort Worth Boswell (0-0) 1376	60% (+4)	—	—	—	—
8	Keller Central (0-0) 1456	52% (+1)	—	—	—	—
9	Northwest Eaton (0-0) 1456	52% (+1)	—	—	—	—
10	@#9Southlake Carroll (0-0) 2444	< 2% (-39)	—	—	—	—
11	#30Byron Nelson (0-0) 2077	7% (-24)	—	—	—	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 4-6A

Rk			Team (Enroll Rk)	OVR/Elo	Overall	District	PPG	PAPG	ProjRec	PO%	Bracket
1		9	Southlake Carroll (6) Dragons	90.9 2444	0-0	0-0	—	—	6.7-0.3	> 98%	D2
2		30	Byron Nelson (2) Bobcats	85.3 2077	0-0	0-0	—	—	5.8-1.2	> 98%	D1
3		98	Keller (3) Indians	77.9 1583	0-0	0-0	—	—	3.5-3.5	66.1%	D1
4		123	Keller Timber Creek (4) Falcons	76.3 1477	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.8-4.2	39%	D2
5		130	Keller Central (8) Chargers	75.9 1456	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.6-4.4	32.7%	—
6		130	Northwest Eaton (1) Eagles	75.9 1456	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.6-4.4	31.7%	—
7		150	Fort Worth Boswell (7) Pioneers	74.7 1376	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.1-4.9	17.9%	—
8		158	Justin Northwest (5) Texans	74.1 1333	0-0	0-0	—	—	1.9-5.1	12.8%	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Keller Timber Creek’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2023

7-4

Rating 565 (67th)

#2 · 2021

3-7

Rating 538 (58th)

#3 · 2016

7-5

Rating 536 (57th)

#4 · 2024

5-5

Rating 536 (57th)

#5 · 2020

4-7

Rating 521 (52nd)

Team Performance History

Year	Record	Final Elo	PPG	PAPG	Margin	Elo SOS	AOS	ADS	DOM	Perf	RQ	WQ	LQ	All-Time Rating (%ile)
2025	2-7	1414	18.3	32.7	−14.3	1713	−6.0	−0.9	−5.1	1373	−3.83	+0.33	−4.16	499(44th)
2024	5-5	1620	21.6	29.0	−7.4	1701	−3.1	−3.4	+0.3	1508	−1.13	+1.05	−2.18	536(57th)
2023	7-4	1633	31.6	29.9	+1.7	1603	+4.8	−2.9	+7.7	1692	−0.52	+1.06	−1.59	565(67th)
2022	4-7	1437	27.9	40.2	−12.3	1649	+1.2	+7.6	−6.5	1338	−3.05	+0.54	−3.59	492(41st)
2021	3-7	1489	30.8	40.0	−9.2	1817	+7.2	+3.1	+4.1	1603	−2.54	+0.32	−2.86	538(58th)
2020	4-7	1469	29.5	28.8	+0.6	1588	+3.2	−0.5	+3.8	1595	−3.77	+0.40	−4.17	521(52nd)
2019	3-7	1399	14.3	31.7	−17.4	1812	−5.8	−2.0	−3.7	1407	−2.95	+0.70	−3.65	505(46th)
2018	2-8	1266	22.4	32.9	−10.5	1750	+0.7	+1.2	−0.5	1488	−4.22	+0.67	−4.90	498(43rd)
2017	6-4	1350	24.5	18.2	+6.3	1362	−4.6	−6.3	+1.7	1542	−2.48	+0.52	−3.00	512(49th)
2016	7-5	1539	36.2	37.8	−1.5	1504	+7.6	+6.5	+1.0	1526	−1.43	+1.18	−2.61	536(57th)
2015	3-7	1316	30.3	33.9	−3.6	1596	+3.9	+4.8	−0.9	1477	−4.07	+0.65	−4.72	498(43rd)
2014	3-7	1214	24.9	36.3	−11.4	1587	−3.0	+4.2	−7.2	1320	−3.66	+0.17	−3.83	469(33rd)
2013	2-8	1220	16.3	38.5	−22.2	1592	−7.8	+8.6	−16.4	1091	−5.07	+0.15	−5.23	440(24th)
2012	4-6	1458	22.4	29.4	−7.0	1540	−2.2	+2.1	−4.3	1392	−3.27	+0.43	−3.70	502(45th)
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).

Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.

AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.

ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.

DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.

Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.

RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.

WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.

LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.

All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.