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CLASS 6A · District 4-6A

Justin Northwest Texans

Enrollment: 2,807 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 5
Rank
#184
was #186
Record
0-6
0-3 district
Elo
1148
#184 of 249
OVR Grade
71.3
#184 of 249 in 6A
OFF Grade
70.7
#171 of 249 in 6A
DEF Grade
71.9
#158 of 249 in 6A
Perf
1255
#165 of 249 in 6A

Schedule & Results

Wk Opponent (Rec) Elo Proj WP% Result Perf AOS ADS WQ LQ
1
@Flower Mound Marcus (2-4) 1424
 19% (-14) L 38-41 1292 +5.9 +14.3 — −0.67
2
Frisco Wakeland (2-4) 1457
 40% (-4) L 21-27 1213 −7.9 +3.6 — −0.86
3
Arlington Lamar (3-3) 1461
 29% (-8) L 15-33 975 −14.9 +6.1 — −0.83
4
Fort Worth Boswell (3-3) 1350
 27% (-9) L 28-31 1453 −4.0 −2.2 — −0.84
5
Keller Timber Creek (3-3) 1510
 32% (-7) L 24-29 1239 −8.8 +1.6 — −0.88
7
@#14Southlake Carroll (4-2) 2362
 < 2% (-48) L 7-44 1360 −6.8 −1.2 — −0.11
8
@Byron Nelson (3-3) 1653
 11% (-20) — — — — — —
9
Keller (6-0) 1806
 6% (-26) — — — — — —
10
@Northwest Eaton (2-4) 1535
 17% (-15) — — — — — —
11
Keller Central (4-2) 1731
 8% (-23) — — — — — —
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 4-6A

Rk Team (Enroll Rk) OVR/Elo Overall District PPG PAPG ProjRec PO% Bracket
1 14
Dragons
89.6
2362
 4-2 3-0 34.5 26.5 6.8-0.2 > 98% D2
2 66
Indians
81.2
1806
 6-0 3-0 51.5 34.3 5.4-1.6 > 98% D1
3 78
Chargers
80.1
1731
 4-2 1-2 36.2 24.3 3.9-3.1 79.4% D2
4 93
Bobcats
78.9
1653
 3-3 1-2 33.8 43.5 3.4-3.6 53.8% D1
5 114
Eagles
77.1
1535
 2-4 1-2 22.3 31.5 3.3-3.7 34.5% —
6 122
Falcons
76.8
1510
 3-3 2-1 24.0 37.3 3.1-3.9 29.7% —
7 154
Pioneers
74.3
1350
 3-3 1-2 37.7 29.8 1.7-5.3 3.2% —
8 184
Texans
71.3
1148
 0-6 0-3 22.2 34.2 0.4-6.6 < 2% —
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
ProjRec, PO%, and Bracket represent the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations from this point forward based on each team's current Elo

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Justin Northwest’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2014
6-4
Rating 586 (74th)
#2 · 2013
8-3
Rating 585 (74th)
#3 · 2012
8-3
Rating 578 (71st)
#4 · 2006
7-4
Rating 574 (70th)
#5 · 2024
6-5
Rating 552 (63rd)

Team Performance History

Year Record Final
Elo		 PPG PAPG Margin Elo
SOS		 AOS ADS DOM Perf RQ WQ LQ All-Time
Rating (%ile)
2025 2-8 1246 19.0 34.1 −15.1 1649 −7.3 +1.5 −8.7 1282 −4.48 +0.36 −4.85 472(34th)
2024 6-5 1565 22.5 23.6 −1.1 1708 −2.2 −9.0 +6.8 1670 −0.86 +1.14 −2.00 552(63rd)
2023 1-0 1595 21.0 13.0 +8.0 1461 −2.9 −13.3 +10.4 1761 +0.13 +0.13 0.00 —
2022 1-0 1569 44.0 14.0 +30.0 1402 +16.8 −11.7 +28.5 2214 +0.10 +0.10 0.00 —
2017 1-0 1671 30.0 14.0 +16.0 1813 +5.4 −16.3 +21.7 2043 +0.37 +0.37 0.00 —
2016 1-0 1518 28.0 10.0 +18.0 1798 +0.9 −24.3 +25.1 2128 +0.38 +0.38 0.00 —
2015 1-8 1286 17.6 36.1 −18.6 1795 −6.6 +1.1 −7.7 1309 −4.68 +0.25 −4.94 480(36th)
2014 6-4 1875 36.1 32.9 +3.2 1638 +9.5 −0.7 +10.2 1755 −0.45 +1.47 −1.92 586(74th)
2013 8-3 1757 34.1 23.4 +10.7 1509 +7.3 −5.6 +12.9 1823 +0.28 +1.45 −1.17 585(74th)
2012 8-3 1639 29.9 16.6 +13.3 1457 +1.6 −10.4 +12.0 1799 −0.71 +1.04 −1.75 578(71st)
2011 4-6 1368 20.9 33.9 −13.0 1662 −1.8 +4.3 −6.1 1347 −2.01 +0.95 −2.96 490(40th)
2010 4-7 1240 19.0 32.8 −13.8 1698 −5.1 +1.3 −6.4 1340 −2.53 +0.42 −2.94 478(36th)
2009 0-9 929 17.9 38.0 −20.1 1548 −10.0 +9.7 −19.7 1007 −6.95 0.00 −6.95 405(16th)
2008 6-5 1625 20.3 21.6 −1.4 1640 −2.7 −6.7 +4.1 1602 −1.00 +1.05 −2.05 547(61st)
2007 3-7 1390 21.9 27.4 −5.5 1616 −2.9 −0.8 −2.2 1446 −3.95 +0.22 −4.16 507(47th)
2006 7-4 1619 28.4 24.4 +4.0 1688 +4.8 −6.7 +11.6 1789 −0.91 +0.70 −1.60 574(70th)
2005 0-1 1422 27.0 28.0 −1.0 1323 −2.3 +7.7 −9.9 1252 −0.95 0.00 −0.95 —
2004 2-0 1466 28.0 7.0 +21.0 1294 −0.7 −10.7 +10.0 1751 +0.15 +0.15 0.00 —
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).
Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.
AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.
ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.
DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.
Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.
RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.
WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.
LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.
All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.