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CLASS 6A · District 4-6A

Justin Northwest Texans

Enrollment: 2,807 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 5

Rank

#158

was #158

Record

0-0

0-0 district

Elo

1333

#158 of 249

OVR Grade

74.1

#158 of 249 in 6A

OFF Grade

—

DEF Grade

—

Perf

—

Schedule & Results

Wk	Opponent (Rec) Elo	Proj WP%	Result	Perf	WQ	LQ
1	@Flower Mound Marcus (0-0) 1680	19% (-14)	—	—	—	—
2	Frisco Wakeland (0-0) 1507	33% (-7)	—	—	—	—
3	Arlington Lamar (0-0) 1658	20% (-13)	—	—	—	—
4	Fort Worth Boswell (0-0) 1376	46% (-2)	—	—	—	—
5	Keller Timber Creek (0-0) 1477	35% (-6)	—	—	—	—
7	@#9Southlake Carroll (0-0) 2444	< 2% (-44)	—	—	—	—
8	@#30Byron Nelson (0-0) 2077	4% (-30)	—	—	—	—
9	Keller (0-0) 1583	26% (-10)	—	—	—	—
10	@Northwest Eaton (0-0) 1456	37% (-5)	—	—	—	—
11	Keller Central (0-0) 1456	37% (-5)	—	—	—	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 4-6A

Rk			Team (Enroll Rk)	OVR/Elo	Overall	District	PPG	PAPG	ProjRec	PO%	Bracket
1		9	Southlake Carroll (6) Dragons	90.9 2444	0-0	0-0	—	—	6.7-0.3	> 98%	D2
2		30	Byron Nelson (2) Bobcats	85.3 2077	0-0	0-0	—	—	5.8-1.2	> 98%	D1
3		98	Keller (3) Indians	77.9 1583	0-0	0-0	—	—	3.5-3.5	66.1%	D1
4		123	Keller Timber Creek (4) Falcons	76.3 1477	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.8-4.2	39%	D2
5		130	Keller Central (8) Chargers	75.9 1456	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.6-4.4	32.7%	—
6		130	Northwest Eaton (1) Eagles	75.9 1456	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.6-4.4	31.7%	—
7		150	Fort Worth Boswell (7) Pioneers	74.7 1376	0-0	0-0	—	—	2.1-4.9	17.9%	—
8		158	Justin Northwest (5) Texans	74.1 1333	0-0	0-0	—	—	1.9-5.1	12.8%	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Justin Northwest’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2014

6-4

Rating 586 (74th)

#2 · 2013

8-3

Rating 585 (74th)

#3 · 2012

8-3

Rating 578 (71st)

#4 · 2006

7-4

Rating 574 (70th)

#5 · 2024

6-5

Rating 552 (63rd)

Team Performance History

Year	Record	Final Elo	PPG	PAPG	Margin	Elo SOS	AOS	ADS	DOM	Perf	RQ	WQ	LQ	All-Time Rating (%ile)
2025	2-8	1246	19.0	34.1	−15.1	1649	−7.3	+1.5	−8.7	1282	−4.48	+0.36	−4.85	472(34th)
2024	6-5	1565	22.5	23.6	−1.1	1708	−2.2	−9.0	+6.8	1670	−0.86	+1.14	−2.00	552(63rd)
2023	1-0	1595	21.0	13.0	+8.0	1461	−2.9	−13.3	+10.4	1761	+0.13	+0.13	0.00	—
2022	1-0	1569	44.0	14.0	+30.0	1402	+16.8	−11.7	+28.5	2214	+0.10	+0.10	0.00	—
2017	1-0	1671	30.0	14.0	+16.0	1813	+5.4	−16.3	+21.7	2043	+0.37	+0.37	0.00	—
2016	1-0	1518	28.0	10.0	+18.0	1798	+0.9	−24.3	+25.1	2128	+0.38	+0.38	0.00	—
2015	1-8	1286	17.6	36.1	−18.6	1795	−6.6	+1.1	−7.7	1309	−4.68	+0.25	−4.94	480(36th)
2014	6-4	1875	36.1	32.9	+3.2	1638	+9.5	−0.7	+10.2	1755	−0.45	+1.47	−1.92	586(74th)
2013	8-3	1757	34.1	23.4	+10.7	1509	+7.3	−5.6	+12.9	1823	+0.28	+1.45	−1.17	585(74th)
2012	8-3	1639	29.9	16.6	+13.3	1457	+1.6	−10.4	+12.0	1799	−0.71	+1.04	−1.75	578(71st)
2011	4-6	1368	20.9	33.9	−13.0	1662	−1.8	+4.3	−6.1	1347	−2.01	+0.95	−2.96	490(40th)
2010	4-7	1240	19.0	32.8	−13.8	1698	−5.1	+1.3	−6.4	1340	−2.53	+0.42	−2.94	478(36th)
2009	0-9	929	17.9	38.0	−20.1	1548	−10.0	+9.7	−19.7	1007	−6.95	0.00	−6.95	405(16th)
2008	6-5	1625	20.3	21.6	−1.4	1640	−2.7	−6.7	+4.1	1602	−1.00	+1.05	−2.05	547(61st)
2007	3-7	1390	21.9	27.4	−5.5	1616	−2.9	−0.8	−2.2	1446	−3.95	+0.22	−4.16	507(47th)
2006	7-4	1619	28.4	24.4	+4.0	1688	+4.8	−6.7	+11.6	1789	−0.91	+0.70	−1.60	574(70th)
2005	0-1	1422	27.0	28.0	−1.0	1323	−2.3	+7.7	−9.9	1252	−0.95	0.00	−0.95	—
2004	2-0	1466	28.0	7.0	+21.0	1294	−0.7	−10.7	+10.0	1751	+0.15	+0.15	0.00	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).

Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.

AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.

ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.

DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.

Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.

RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.

WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.

LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.

All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.