| Wk | Opponent (Rec) Elo | Proj WP% | Result | Perf | AOS | ADS | WQ | LQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | #44Rockwall-Heath (4-2) 1987 |
89% (+20) | W 45-20 | 2537 | +16.5 | −25.0 | +0.58 | — |
| 2 | @Melissa |
91% (+22) | W 27-9 | 2271 | +5.4 | −25.4 | +0.55 | — |
| 3 | #4Waxahachie (5-1) 2612 |
32% (-7) | L 30-44 | 2202 | +16.4 | −11.6 | — | −0.04 |
| 5 | Frisco Wakeland (2-4) 1457 |
98% (+36) | W 35-7 | 2063 | +6.1 | −16.4 | +0.20 | — |
| 6 | @Denton Braswell (5-1) 1736 |
95% (+28) | W 51-7 | 2733 | +25.1 | −24.3 | +0.36 | — |
| 7 | 63% (+5) | L 7-42 | 1657 | −1.9 | −8.2 | — | −0.14 | |
| 8 | Little Elm (3-3) 1426 |
97% (+33) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 9 | @Lewisville Hebron (4-2) 1854 |
84% (+16) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 10 | Flower Mound Marcus (2-4) 1424 |
97% (+33) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 11 | @Flower Mound (5-1) 1720 |
90% (+21) | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com | ||||||||
Rank
#19
was #10
Record
4-2
2-1 district
Elo
2248
#19 of 249
OVR Grade
87.9
#19 of 249 in 6A
OFF Grade
82.9
#51 of 249 in 6A
DEF Grade
90.7
#17 of 249 in 6A
Perf
2244
#28 of 249 in 6A
Schedule & Results
District Standings Projection - District 5-6A
| Rk | Team (Enroll Rk) | OVR/ |
Overall | District | PPG | PAPG | ProjRec | PO% | Bracket | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com | |||||||||||
| ProjRec, PO%, and Bracket represent the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations from this point forward based on each team's current Elo | |||||||||||
Since 2004
Historical Performance
Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Denton Guyer’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.
Best TNG Rated Seasons
#1 · 2022
14-1
Rating 816 (99th)
#2 · 2021
14-2
Rating 796 (99th)
#3 · 2019
14-2
Rating 782 (98th)
#4 · 2010
13-3
Rating 728 (96th)
#5 · 2014
10-2
Rating 724 (96th)
Team Performance History
| Year | Record | Final Elo |
PPG | PAPG | Margin | Elo SOS |
AOS | ADS | DOM | Perf | RQ | WQ | LQ | All-Time Rating (%ile) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com | ||||||||||||||
Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).
Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.
AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.
ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.
DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.
Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.
RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.
WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.
LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.
All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.