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CLASS 6A · District 3-6A

Arlington Colts

Enrollment: 2,825 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 3

Rank

#108

was #108

Record

4-2

2-1 district

Elo

1558

#108 of 249

OVR Grade

77.5

#108 of 249 in 6A

OFF Grade

77.8

#93 of 249 in 6A

DEF Grade

75.5

#114 of 249 in 6A

Perf

1614

#104 of 249 in 6A

Schedule & Results

Wk	Opponent (Rec) Elo	Proj WP%	Result	Perf	AOS	ADS	WQ	LQ
1	@Byron Nelson (3-3) 1653	7% (-24)	W 38-22	2014	+3.7	−16.8	+0.72	—
2	Northwest Eaton (2-4) 1535	77% (+11)	L 10-20	1296	−16.2	−8.1	—	−0.85
3	Red Oak (4-2) 1711	32% (-7)	W 52-47	1755	+27.7	+17.5	+0.41	—
4	@Arlington Sam Houston (3-3) 813	97% (+32)	W 37-15	1465	−3.4	−2.0	+0.02	—
5	Arlington Lamar (3-3) 1461	70% (+8)	L 31-41	1175	+1.1	+14.1	—	−0.83
7	@Granbury (2-4) 838	95% (+28)	W 58-13	1977	+11.2	−7.9	+0.01	—
8	#45Aledo (3-3) 1975	15% (-17)	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	@Arlington Bowie (3-3) 1586	47% (-1)	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	@#48Arlington Martin (6-0) 1961	16% (-16)	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	Weatherford (4-2) 1393	67% (+7)	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 3-6A

Rk			Team (Enroll Rk)	OVR/Elo	Overall	District	PPG	PAPG	ProjRec	PO%	Bracket
1		48	Arlington Martin (2) Warriors	83.6 1961	6-0	3-0	42.7	20.8	6.6-0.4	> 98%	D1
2		45	Aledo (6) Bearcats	83.8 1975	3-3	2-1	31.2	17.2	5.7-1.3	> 98%	D2
3		101	Arlington Bowie (7) Volunteers	77.9 1586	3-3	2-1	23.7	28.3	4.3-2.6	87.3%	D2
4		108	Arlington (3) Colts	77.5 1558	4-2	2-1	37.7	26.3	3.5-3.5	56.6%	D1
5		145	Weatherford (4) Kangaroos	75 1393	4-2	2-1	31.8	26.8	3.6-3.4	48.1%	—
6		129	Arlington Lamar (5) Vikings	76 1461	3-3	1-2	28.3	28.7	3.1-3.9	9.4%	—
7		219	Granbury (8) Pirates	66.6 838	2-4	0-3	30.2	40.5	0.7-6.3	< 2%	—
8		221	Arlington Sam Houston (1) Texans	66.2 813	3-3	0-3	25.7	32.2	0.6-6.4	< 2%	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
ProjRec, PO%, and Bracket represent the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations from this point forward based on each team's current Elo

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Arlington’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2019

9-4

Rating 675 (91st)

#2 · 2009

10-3

Rating 664 (90th)

#3 · 2018

11-1

Rating 657 (89th)

#4 · 2017

10-3

Rating 656 (89th)

#5 · 2020

5-5

Rating 633 (85th)

Team Performance History

Year	Record	Final Elo	PPG	PAPG	Margin	Elo SOS	AOS	ADS	DOM	Perf	RQ	WQ	LQ	All-Time Rating (%ile)
2025	6-4	1409	31.0	24.4	+6.6	1260	−4.8	−2.6	−2.1	1447	−2.38	+0.73	−3.11	508(47th)
2024	7-4	1416	38.0	31.9	+6.1	1302	+2.1	+4.8	−2.7	1432	−2.24	+0.65	−2.90	507(47th)
2023	4-7	1366	25.3	29.8	−4.5	1454	−5.1	+2.3	−7.3	1317	−4.33	+0.26	−4.59	490(41st)
2022	6-5	1577	30.5	28.5	+1.9	1587	+3.3	−1.6	+4.9	1622	−1.89	+0.97	−2.87	543(60th)
2021	4-7	1630	32.8	40.5	−7.7	1695	+7.2	+8.3	−1.2	1471	−2.75	+0.95	−3.70	523(53rd)
2020	5-5	1939	32.5	28.3	+4.2	1823	+11.6	−6.6	+18.2	1954	−0.30	+1.66	−1.96	633(85th)
2019	9-4	2070	41.2	19.2	+22.1	1661	+15.1	−13.4	+28.5	2212	+0.88	+1.96	−1.07	675(91st)
2018	11-1	2121	44.1	21.4	+22.7	1552	+14.9	−9.4	+24.3	2108	+2.91	+3.38	−0.47	657(89th)
2017	10-3	2077	37.8	24.1	+13.7	1713	+13.5	−9.2	+22.7	2068	+2.67	+3.21	−0.54	656(89th)
2016	6-5	1738	33.1	33.9	−0.8	1693	+7.9	−0.6	+8.6	1714	+0.32	+1.88	−1.56	568(68th)
2015	5-6	1534	39.6	35.4	+4.3	1599	+11.8	+1.8	+10.0	1750	−2.27	+0.38	−2.65	553(63rd)
2014	4-6	1480	30.7	31.9	−1.2	1458	−1.5	−0.9	−0.6	1485	−3.14	+0.21	−3.36	514(50th)
2013	6-5	1637	31.0	22.6	+8.4	1474	+2.6	−5.9	+8.5	1713	−1.39	+1.61	−3.01	560(65th)
2012	10-3	1909	33.7	20.8	+12.8	1539	+6.6	−8.1	+14.6	1866	+1.76	+2.54	−0.78	606(79th)
2011	6-5	1741	40.4	27.6	+12.7	1601	+13.7	−2.3	+15.9	1898	−0.92	+1.47	−2.40	598(77th)
2010	7-4	1837	41.6	32.2	+9.5	1567	+13.6	+2.3	+11.4	1784	−0.24	+0.99	−1.23	591(75th)
2009	10-3	2064	41.6	24.9	+16.7	1679	+16.2	−7.3	+23.5	2087	+2.01	+2.99	−0.98	664(90th)
2008	8-5	1657	30.3	32.0	−1.7	1619	+5.4	+1.3	+4.2	1605	−0.68	+1.28	−1.96	560(66th)
2007	4-6	1549	28.9	33.2	−4.3	1682	+6.7	+1.8	+4.9	1623	−2.36	+1.07	−3.43	545(60th)
2006	4-6	1473	31.0	30.0	+1.0	1594	+6.6	+0.4	+6.2	1655	−3.11	+0.65	−3.75	543(60th)
2005	7-4	1571	33.9	23.1	+10.8	1518	+6.7	−4.1	+10.8	1771	−1.33	+1.48	−2.81	569(68th)
2004	1-9	1112	22.5	32.0	−9.5	1628	−2.1	+6.8	−8.9	1278	−5.83	+0.19	−6.02	464(31st)
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).

Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.

AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.

ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.

DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.

Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.

RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.

WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.

LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.

All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.