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CLASS 6A · District 14-6A

Aldine Davis Falcons

Enrollment: 3,538 · Dist. Enr. Rk · 2

Rank

#92

was #101

Record

5-1

3-0 district

Elo

1655

#92 of 249

OVR Grade

78.9

#92 of 249 in 6A

OFF Grade

75.9

#112 of 249 in 6A

DEF Grade

76.4

#107 of 249 in 6A

Perf

1571

#109 of 249 in 6A

Schedule & Results

Wk	Opponent (Rec) Elo	Proj WP%	Result	Perf	AOS	ADS	WQ	LQ
1	@#50Waller (5-1) 1950	10% (-21)	L 6-41	1182	−16.2	−3.5	—	−0.41
2	@Cy Lakes (4-2) 1523	39% (-4)	W 42-29	1830	+14.4	+1.2	+0.19	—
3	Fort Bend Bush (1-6) 1215	63% (+5)	W 41-27	1450	+8.3	+10.3	+0.13	—
5	@Aldine MacArthur (4-2) 943	92% (+24)	W 49-20	1760	+11.6	+1.2	+0.03	—
6	Aldine (0-6) 143	> 98% (+58)	W 49-0	1304	−8.0	−0.2	+0.00	—
7	Spring Dekaney (3-3) 1327	71% (+9)	W 21-0	1902	−2.6	−18.7	+0.12	—
8	#49Spring Westfield (4-2) 1956	22% (-12)	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	@Aldine Eisenhower (3-3) 1292	82% (+14)	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	Spring (2-4) 1061	92% (+24)	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	@Aldine Nimitz (3-3) 1518	64% (+5)	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

District Standings Projection - District 14-6A

Rk			Team (Enroll Rk)	OVR/Elo	Overall	District	PPG	PAPG	ProjRec	PO%	Bracket
1		49	Spring Westfield (8) Mustangs	83.5 1956	4-2	3-0	24.8	6.2	6.7-0.3	> 98%	D2
2		92	Aldine Davis (2) Falcons	78.9 1655	5-1	3-0	34.7	19.5	5.6-1.4	> 98%	D1
3		119	Aldine Nimitz (3) Cougars	76.9 1518	3-3	2-1	23.8	27.0	4.9-2.1	96.9%	D1
4		159	Spring Dekaney (7) Wildcats	74 1327	3-3	1-2	18.5	20.3	3.4-3.6	62.9%	D2
5		164	Aldine Eisenhower (5) Eagles	73.5 1292	3-3	1-2	17.5	25.2	2.9-4.1	28.1%	—
6		200	Spring (6) Lions	70 1061	2-4	1-2	19.8	34.0	2.8-4.2	10%	—
7		210	Aldine MacArthur (1) Generals	68.2 943	4-2	1-2	30.5	25.8	1.6-5.3	2.6%	—
8		249	Aldine (4) Mustangs	56.1 143	0-6	0-3	1.2	47.3	0-7	< 2%	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com
ProjRec, PO%, and Bracket represent the result of 10,000 Monte Carlo season simulations from this point forward based on each team's current Elo

Since 2004

Historical Performance

Shaded band is the 6A league mean Elo ± 1 standard deviation for that season; the dashed gray line is the league mean. The four colored dashed lines mark the Elo needed that season to rank Top 10 / 25 / 50 / 100 among all qualifying 6A team-seasons (min. 8 games) — a rough gauge of how Aldine Davis’s season stacked up against the state’s best year over year.

Best TNG Rated Seasons

#1 · 2025

7-4

Rating 549 (62nd)

#2 · 2015

6-5

Rating 530 (55th)

#3 · 2024

6-5

Rating 518 (51st)

#4 · 2017

3-6

Rating 513 (49th)

#5 · 2014

6-5

Rating 504 (46th)

Team Performance History

Year	Record	Final Elo	PPG	PAPG	Margin	Elo SOS	AOS	ADS	DOM	Perf	RQ	WQ	LQ	All-Time Rating (%ile)
2025	7-4	1532	31.1	18.5	+12.6	1421	+2.1	−4.5	+6.6	1665	−1.27	+1.04	−2.31	549(62nd)
2024	6-5	1439	23.9	21.5	+2.4	1439	−3.9	−3.8	−0.1	1497	−2.31	+0.60	−2.91	518(51st)
2023	5-5	1130	34.1	30.7	+3.4	1200	+0.9	+9.4	−8.5	1288	−3.18	+0.10	−3.29	466(32nd)
2022	4-6	1015	19.8	28.8	−9.0	1292	−13.0	+5.1	−18.1	1048	−4.33	+0.08	−4.41	416(18th)
2021	3-7	1108	19.2	28.2	−9.0	1481	−10.0	+1.1	−11.0	1224	−4.38	+0.11	−4.49	444(26th)
2020	2-5	1111	15.4	28.0	−12.6	1405	−13.1	+3.3	−16.4	1090	−3.05	+0.05	−3.10	—
2019	3-7	1085	27.6	31.2	−3.6	1301	−3.1	+7.7	−10.8	1231	−5.17	+0.08	−5.25	444(26th)
2018	6-5	1368	24.8	24.3	+0.5	1344	−6.3	0.0	−6.3	1342	−2.62	+0.27	−2.89	485(38th)
2017	3-6	1405	23.9	21.4	+2.4	1481	−1.3	−2.4	+1.1	1528	−3.17	+0.24	−3.41	513(49th)
2016	5-6	1440	26.0	28.4	−2.4	1444	−1.3	+3.6	−4.8	1379	−3.00	+0.47	−3.47	497(43rd)
2015	6-5	1338	29.2	14.7	+14.5	1283	−1.8	−6.7	+4.9	1623	−3.04	+0.33	−3.37	530(55th)
2014	6-5	1370	27.4	20.5	+6.9	1328	−3.8	−2.9	−0.9	1478	−3.35	+0.46	−3.81	504(46th)
2013	0-1	810	0.0	42.0	−42.0	1144	−30.3	+24.1	−54.4	140	−0.95	0.00	−0.95	—
2012	0-1	827	6.0	33.0	−27.0	1148	−26.5	+13.3	−39.8	506	−0.97	0.00	−0.97	—
2011	0-1	872	14.0	40.0	−26.0	1028	−19.2	+26.5	−45.7	358	−0.98	0.00	−0.98	—
2010	0-1	1016	7.0	56.0	−49.0	952	−30.9	+39.1	−69.9	-248	−0.99	0.00	−0.99	—
2008	1-0	1326	40.0	8.0	+32.0	580	−8.1	+0.4	−8.4	1289	+0.00	+0.00	0.00	—
2007	1-0	1308	61.0	0.0	+61.0	416	+6.2	−1.3	+7.4	1686	+0.00	+0.00	0.00	—
2006	1-0	1290	67.0	0.0	+67.0	457	+12.0	−1.4	+13.4	1836	+0.00	+0.00	0.00	—
2005	1-1	1267	22.5	12.0	+10.5	806	−18.6	+2.1	−20.7	982	−0.94	+0.01	−0.95	—
2004	2-0	1352	33.0	11.0	+22.0	920	−1.6	0.0	−1.6	1461	+0.13	+0.13	0.00	—
Tradition Never Graduates 2026 | @TexasTNG | texastng.com

Margin — Average scoring margin (PPG minus PAPG).

Elo SOS — Average Elo of opponents faced that season, using each opponent's final season Elo.

AOS — Adjusted Offensive Scoring — scoring output compared to the expected average team's offensive performance, adjusted for opponents' defensive strength.

ADS — Adjusted Defensive Scoring — scoring allowed compared to the expected average defensive team's performance, adjusted for opponents' offensive strength; lower (more negative) is better.

DOM — Dominance — AOS minus ADS, combined scoring-margin efficiency.

Perf — Performance Elo — that season's DOM translated onto the Elo scale, an independent check on Elo itself.

RQ — Resume Quality — net wins above a second-round-quality opponent (WQ + LQ) for the season. Typically runs about −10 to +10: 0 is a break-even resume against that bar, the median qualifying season sits around −1, and +5 or better is an elite, deep-playoff-caliber resume.

WQ — Win Quality — resume credit earned from wins only, weighted by opponent strength. Each win's credit is benchmarked against a hypothetical ~1850 Elo opponent (roughly a second-round-playoff-quality team) — beating a team stronger than that earns close to full credit, beating a much weaker team earns very little.

LQ — Loss Quality — resume cost from losses only, weighted by opponent strength.

All-Time Rating — 0–990 composite score ranked against every qualifying 6A team-season since 2004; parenthetical is the all-time percentile.